Trends91 Geopolitical Intelligence
Taiwan does not face the prospect of becoming another Ukraine—a nation locked in a grinding, years-long land war of attrition. Instead, Taiwan faces something more precarious: a conflict that will be decided in weeks, not years, and will hinge on phenomena that Ukraine never experienced: naval blockade, amphibious assault, and the absence of contiguous alliance […]
India’s decision to opt out of the “Will for Peace 2026” BRICS naval exercises in January 2026—despite holding the BRICS chair that same year—is not a tactical maneuver but a declaration of structural incompatibility. While Indian officials framed the absence as a technical clarification (the exercises were “not institutionalized” BRICS activities), the underlying logic reveals […]
Iran’s potential regime collapse—triggered by cascading internal economic crises, military defeats inflicted by Israel and the United States, and mass anti-government protests beginning December 28, 2025—represents the most consequential geopolitical rupture in the Middle East since the Syrian civil war. However, unlike the Syrian case, Iran’s collapse will generate shockwaves far beyond the Levant, destabilizing […]
Russia’s recent geopolitical losses—the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria (December 2024), the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela (January 2026), and its refusal to provide military support to Iran during a twelve-day conflict with the United States and Israel (2025)—present a critical inflection point in assessing Russian power status. The question whether Russia […]
Can Europe Sustain 2 Million Shells Per Year Once Powder Bottlenecks Determine Output? The establishment consensus holds that the EU’s €500 million ASAP (Act in Support of Ammunition Production) program, combined with €1.5+ billion in follow-on industrial financing, represents a rational industrial policy designed to rebuild European munitions capacity and achieve the politically-binding target of […]
The establishment consensus holds that the United States will deliver 50-100+ operationally-capable hypersonic missiles by the end of fiscal 2027, with Lockheed Martin’s LRHW (Long-Range Hypersonic Weapon), Raytheon’s HACM (Hypersonic Attack Cruise Missile), and the Navy’s CPS (Conventional Prompt Strike) all reaching initial operational capability or production readiness. This conclusion is demonstrably false based on […]
Can European Navies Deploy 15 New Frigates by 2030? The establishment view in Brussels, Berlin, and Paris is that Europe’s coordinated naval procurement, backed by political will and fresh funding, will successfully deliver a new generation of frigates on time. This view is catastrophically wrong. My core thesis is that Europe’s three major naval consortiums—Fincantieri, […]
Can Western Semiconductor Alliances Survive Industrial Subsidy Competition? The establishment consensus holds that the CHIPS Act and related semiconductor initiatives globally represent a rational, coordinated effort to secure democratic supply chains against authoritarian dependence. This conclusion is catastrophically wrong. The core thesis: The CHIPS Act functions as strategic enclosure rather than alliance coordination—a $52.7 billion subsidy […]
The war that could trigger World War III likely won’t start with missiles. It won’t begin with invasion broadcasts or synchronized military movements. Instead, it may start at 2:47 AM on a Tuesday, in a network operations center somewhere, when operators lose communications with a power generation station that supplies electricity to 15 million people. […]
Germany has become the first European nation to deploy the Arrow 3 missile defense system, marking a historic milestone in continental air defense on December 3, 2025. This €3.8 billion acquisition anchors the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), now comprising 24 member states stretching from the Arctic to the Mediterranean. Yet as Europe celebrates this […]
In late September 2022, as Ukrainian forces prepared for a major counteroffensive in Kherson designed to reclaim territory from Russian occupation, the Ukrainian military made an urgent request to Elon Musk. Activate Starlink satellite service over Crimea and Sevastopol—a Russian naval stronghold. The operation required precise real-time satellite communications to coordinate drone strikes against Russian […]
Japan hosts first Central Asia summit December 2025 while Kazakhstan signs “alliance” with Russia. But Russia’s military overstretch in Ukraine is weakening Central Asian ties, enabling China and Japan to gain influence. Strategic analysis of Russia’s regional capacity collapse.
AI improves targeting accuracy from 30-80% in Ukraine’s FPV drones, but compresses kill-chain timescales from days to milliseconds—lowering barriers to conflict. Explore the precision paradox reshaping 2025 military doctrine.
Wei Chen worked at a coal power plant near Beijing for twenty-three years. Fifty-one years old. He’d watched the facility pump endless black smoke into the air while government officials visited annually to say “this is temporary.” Then in April 2025, Wei’s plant shut down. Not permanently—not yet. But permanently enough that his job title […]
Taiwan’s 2026 defense spending of $30B marks first 3% GDP threshold since 2009. President Lai pledges 5% by 2030 and T-Dome air defense system. Explore Taiwan’s military modernization strategy against China’s escalating pressure.